The Shelf · Volume II
II
Why Do Civilisations Rise and Fall?
Eight evenings. Four disciplines. One question that will not leave you alone.
Every civilisation yet recorded believed itself permanent, and so far all but ours have been wrong. This volume follows one question across four disciplines, from the silver content of a Roman coin to the silt load of the Yellow River, and it refuses to stop at the word “complexity”. Each evening closes with the guide asking what you make of the evidence; by the eighth, the case is yours to argue.
The Contents
Eight evenings
The first three are set out in full below; the rest are listed as a contents page should be. The first evening of this volume is free to read.
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IThe Weight of EmpireRome, the morning after
Britain, the year the legions leave. The coin stops arriving, the villa roof goes unmended, and the story of being Roman has to be retold by the people left behind. The opening evening asks what an empire actually weighs on those holding it up.
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IIMoney and BeliefCoinage and trust
A denarius is a promise, and promises are cheap to break. From the silver crisis of the third century to Buenos Aires in 2001, the second evening follows what happens when money stops being believed.
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IIIThe Price of ScaleComplexity’s cost
Every large society buys solutions that cost more than the problems they solve. Joseph Tainter’s ledger of diminishing returns, read against aqueducts, grain fleets and the bureaucracies that fed them.
- IVSoil, Water, WeatherThe ecology of collapse
- VThe Long View EastThe view from Chang’an
- VIPlague and PassageDisease on the trade roads
- VIIRuins and RenewalsWhat stands today
- VIIIThe Question, YoursYou argue the case
Evenings IV to VIII open as you reach them. The guide will suggest an order; the itinerary stays yours.
The Conversation
An evening, played out
Evening II. The chapter is closed; the lamp stays on.
The Guide
You have read how the denarius thinned from silver to promise. Had you seen that happen anywhere nearer home?
You
Argentina, 2001. My aunt kept her savings in dollars under the mattress.
The Guide
Then you already know how collapse begins: privately, at kitchen tables, long before any historian names it. Next evening we price it. I will keep your place.
Who Wrote It
The authors
Every volume is built by named experts. The guide reasons from their material and nothing else.
Evenings VII and VIII were built together, source list in hand.
Membership
Begin this volume
The first evening is free. After it, The Reader at £19 a month or The Patron at £180 a year, with the print annual posted to London or Hong Kong.
All prices indicative